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A Unique Triple Doji Candlestick Pattern Preceded "Black Monday"
Many stock brokers and traders who are still alive and active in the business today clearly remember "Black Monday," October 19, 1987. That was the day when the Dow Industrials fell 508 points, for a total loss of 900 points in 10 trading days. "Black Monday" "came out of the blue; it came out of nowhere." The Candlesticks say otherwise.
What really happened? Prices formed a Unique Triple Doji Candlestick reversal warning signal on October 5. The market slowly declined gradually over the next six days; then fell increasingly quickly on October 14, 15, and 16; and then gapped down to open on October 19 and closed Down 508 points on that day.
Thereafter, there ensued a rather frenzied search for a "reason," a proximate cause, a precipitating spark, that set off "Black Monday." No such external cause was found – or has ever been found, to this day. The reason for that is that there wasn't any. The "reason" was internal to the traders' aggregate mood, or psychology – which cannot be seen. Its results can be seen, but not the mood itself. Black Monday was the terminal result of an increasingly negative sentiment on the part of those who were trading the market at that time. There was no externally-generated "cause" or causes for the event. The Unique Triple Doji pattern on October 5 was an extraordinarily powerful Candlestick reversal warning signal, but no one recognized it at the time. Only recently has the writer recognized it and given it a name.
Candlestick interpretation has come a long way since 1987. In the modern day – last month, on April 27, to be precise – a "kissing cousin" of the Unique Triple Doji arose in the Dow Industrials: a tall black Candle which bearishly engulfed the Real Bodies of the eleven preceding price bars. We recognized it instantly as a powerful reversal warning pattern, and publicized our finding. Prices declined thereafter, culminating in the "spike low" of May 6. We consider the spike low to have been the first wave Down, clearly evidencing the return of the Bear, which has been hibernating since the start of the Great Rally in early March 2009.
As was the case back in 1987, countless professional and lay Sherlock Holmes types have been feverishly trying to find an external "cause," a proximate cause, for the spike low. The hunt may go on for a long time, but will produce nothing but frustration and lack of result.
Also as was the case in 1987, the reason for that is that there simply was no precipitating cause. Various theories may emerge, and examples of possible "causes" given; but they will be evidence of results, not of causes. Once again, the cause was the ongoing sentiment, or mood, or psychology of traders in the aggregate, which of course lives in a parallel non-physical world which cannot be seen- the world of emotion. The very elongated black Candlestick of May 6, in various time frames, and its predecessors, is a picture of human emotion at work. It is not the picture of a result which had a physical precipitating cause.
William Kurtz
About the Author
The author is a long-time investor and retired attorney. He has passed the NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam. He owns CandleWave, LLC, which publishes his Investment Newsletter and Action Suggestions for the major Indexes, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Dow Industrials, the Dow Transports, and the NASDAQ 100. He is the developer and owner of the "Candelaabra" technical analysis system, which excels in ferreting out reversals of trend as they are developing or even before they emerge.
William Kurtz
May 22, 2010
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